In this risk free bet strategy guide we’re going to look at exactly how we can guarantee a profit from risk free betting offers.
What is a Risk Free bet?
In a risk-free bet, we receive a free bet only if our initial bet loses.
For instance, if a sportsbook offers a promotion where we wager $500 on a team to win a game, and the team ends up losing, they will credit our account with a $500 free bet.
Placing our first bet on a heavily favored team with low odds might be tempting, but it actually yields the lowest expected value from this offer.
To achieve the maximum expected value from these offers, we need to place the bets at high odds.
However, this means that we have a higher chance of losing both our initial bet and the free bet. For some of the large offers, such as the Caesars $1250 risk-free bet, that can be a way outside of normal bankroll management.
Fortunately, we can maximize the expected value of the offer while eliminating nearly all of the risk by using strategic hedge bets.
With this approach, we ensure that we make approximately the same profit, regardless of whether we win or lose the first bet.
To achieve this, we use a modified free bet conversion calculator to lock in a profit. This calculator is called a Risk Free Bet Calculator.
Risk Free Bet Strategy Guide
In this guide we are going to be using the Risk Free Bet Calculator.
To Illustrate how we can use the calculator to profit from risk free bet offers we are going to use Betway’s ‘$250 First Bet Reset’ offer as an example.
You place your first bet of $250 with Betway and if it loses you get a $250 free bet.
Sportsbooks have been told they can’t refer to these offers as risk-free bets. However, for the sake of this guide, we’ll refer to it as a ‘risk-free bet’ offer.
Step 1: Find a High Odds Low Hold Match
Firstly we need to find a low hold match between the odds available at Betway and another sportsbook that are around +150 or above. We can try to find this manually or we can use a low hold bet finder.
The higher the odds at Betway the more profit. However, the larger the bankroll we will need.
For this example, let’s say I find a match between Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chief. The odds at Betway for Detroit Lions are +240. The odds at another sportsbook Circa Sports are -275.
Now we have a low hold match to bet on we just need to enter these odds into the Risk Free Bet Calculator.
Step 2: Enter Information into Risk Free Bet Calculator
The first thing we need to tell the calculator, is how much we are going to bet at Betway. In this case we want the maximum $250 free bet so we will be palcing $250.
Enter your amount into the Qualifier Bet Stake box
After this we need to tell the calculator the conditions under which we get our free bet.
Once we have told the calculator the condition under which we get credited our free bet. We now need to tell the calculator the size of the free bet and estimate how much of it we expect to convert to cash.
To illustrate, I have used a conservative 65% free bet conversion / retention rate.
This means if our first bet at Betway loses and we get credited a $250 free bet we expect to covert 65% or $162.5 of the free bet to cash.
Following on from this section. The last piece of information the calculator needs are the odds from both sportsbook.
In this case we’re betting at +240 on Detroit Lions at Betway and -275 on Kansas City Chiefs at Circa Survive. Enter these into the odds section below.
Always put the odds at the sportsbook offering the free bet promotion in Outcome One Odds box! Otherwise the calculation will be wrong.
The amount we need to bet on each team is displayed on the right hand side of the calculator.
- We would bet $250 on Detroit Lions at Betway
- We would bet $504.17 on Kansas City Chiefs at Circa Sports
Step 3: Place Our Bets and Wait For Results
Once we know how much we need to bet. Just login to both sportsbooks and find the respective markets and place the bets with the stakes above.
The calculator will also calculate the overall profit we should expect to make regardless of whether our bet at Betway wins or loses. In this case $95.83 profit.
A profit breakdown of each outcome winnings provided by the calculator.
In our example, if our bet on Detroit Lions win at Betway. We would profit $600 from the $250 bet @ +240
Consequently, the bet on Kansas City Chiefs would lose at Circa Sports and we would lose $504.17 from that bet.
We would not receive a free bet in this scenario. However, between both bets, the win of $600 and the loss of $504.17 we would make an overall profit of $95.83
In this scenario, we would be finished with the offer and don’t need to place anymore bets
Alternatively, if our bet on Detroit Lions at Betway loses. We should still expect to make around $95 dollars. Let’s look at the breakdown if outcome two i.e. Kansas City Chiefs win.
In this scenario, we will lose our $250 bet at Betway. However, we will win our bet on Kansas City Chiefs at Circa Sports. We will win $183.33 from our bet of $504.17 at odds of -275
Although, this means between both bets we will make an initial loss of -$66.67, but we must remember we’re getting a $250 free bet due to our bet losing at Betway.
Once we factor in that we’re expecting to convert 65% of that $250 to cash. We need to add $162.50 to the total profit we expect from this offer. When we do that we get an overall profit of $95.83
Step 4: Convert Free Bet if Credited
Finally, if we are credited with a free bet we need to convert the free bet to cash.
We can do this using the normal free bet conversion method using a free bet conversion calculator
The exact profit we make will vary dependent on how much of the free bet we convert to cash.
Summary of the Risk Free Bet Strategy
In order to make a profit every time we find a risk free bet offer we want to using the following strategy:
- Find a high odds low hold match
- Enter the odds in the risk free bet calculator
- Place our bet at the promotional sportsbook
- Place a hedge bet at another sportsbook equal to the stake suggested by the calculator
- Wait for match result.
- Convert free bet if credited
- Withdraw our profit
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