A zero risk betting strategy is the holy grail for many sports bettors and professional bettors. Who wouldn’t want to win every time with zero risk of losing?
However, there are many popular betting systems and betting methods. Not all provide long-term profitability.
Is it even possible to win every time you bet and if so how?
We’re going to cover five betting strategies that we can use to remove nearly all the risk from betting.
These methods are theoretically risk-free when viewed through the lens of probability theory. In simple terms when done correctly without any mistakes you will always win.
However, there are always risks with everything in life once you move from the world of theory and probability to practicality. There are aspects to ‘no-risk betting strategies’ that you should be aware of before starting. I have outlined these in the section: Can a Zero Risk Betting Strategy Ever Have Zero Risks?
Let’s get into the Strategies!
Zero Risk Betting Strategy Overview
Firstly, we’ll look at Arbitrage Betting a method which focuses on extracting your profit by pitting bookmakers’ odds against each other.
Secondly, we will cover a very popular strategy called Matched Betting where we profit from sportsbooks’ promotional betting offers
Third, we’re taking a look into Middles Betting a very lucrative betting strategy where we can place two bets and win both bets.
Next, we’re going to look at a strategy we can use with Betting Exchanges, like Sporttrade and Prophet Exchange. This method is called ‘Trap Pricing’.
Last we’re going to look at profiting from casino games.
Arbitrage Betting – Zero Risk Betting Strategy
To understand how the arbitrage betting strategy works, let’s start by looking at how sportsbooks earn money.
Sportsbooks make money by adjusting their odds in a way that guarantees they keep a portion of the wagers, known as the vig or hold rating. This means they offer us odds that are slightly worse than the true odds. As a result, they end up paying customers less than they would if things were completely fair.
For instance, if we have two equally matched teams that, over many games, would each win about 50% of the time.
The fair odds for both teams would be +100. This is because if equal amounts were bet on both sides, the sportsbook wouldn’t make a profit.
You can see this in the image below, using an example NFL match: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos.
In this scenario, two customers each place a $100 bet. One bets on the Kansas City Chiefs, and the other on the Denver Broncos.
Caesars Sportsbook offers +100 odds for both teams. If a customer’s chosen team wins the match, Caesars Sportsbook pays them a $100 profit in addition to their $100 wager, resulting in a total payout of $200 to the winning customer.
As shown in the image above, Caesars collected a total of $200 from both Customer A and Customer B. Regardless of whether the Kansas City Chiefs or Denver Broncos win, Caesars will have to pay out $200 to either Customer A or Customer B.
Consequently, when the teams are priced fairly, Caesars will not make a profit. To ensure a profit, Caesars adds a house advantage in the form of a hold rating.
Adding the House Edge
They do this by lowering the odds. Now, let’s say Caesars offered odds of -125 on each team instead of +100. How would this affect our example above?
Let’s take a look!
As before both customers are betting $100 on each team. However, this time the odds for each team are -125.
This means we would have to bet $125 to win $100. This results in a $100 bet winning $80 profit.
Consequently, the payout a customer receives from their chosen team winning the match is reduced from a $200 payout to a $180 payout.
However, the sportsbook Caesars still collected $200 between Customer A and Customer B!
As a result, no matter which team wins the game. Caesars will always have $20 which they don’t need payout to either customer. This results in a profit for Caesars.
We call this the sportsbook hold rating which is the percentage of every $100 wagered they expect to keep as profit.
In this case, $20/$200 = 10% Hold Rating
Turn the Odds Against Sportsbooks with Arbitrage
Ok so we now know how sportsbooks adjust their odds to ensure they make a profit.
How can we use this information to ensure we make a profit every time to create the ultimate zero risk betting strategy?
The answer is to create a hold rating that is in our favor instead of the sportsbooks. We can do this by creating what’s called a synthetic hold rating.
A synthetic hold rating is when we take the odds from two or more sportsbooks to reduce or turn the hold rating in our favor.
Sportsbooks usually don’t have the same odds. They are constantly adjusting their odds for both teams.
In certain scenario’s the odds between two teams at two different sportsbooks differ so much it creates a profitable zero risk betting opportunity for us.
This is called an arbitrage betting opportunity.
Arbitrage Bet Example
Using our previous example let’s imagine rather than betting at Caesars we compare odds between a number of sportsbooks to find the best odds.
We find Barstool Sports is offering +110 on Kansas City Chiefs and PointsBet is offering +110 on Denver Broncos
Let’s see what happens if we bet $100 team at each sportsbook. i.e. Bet $100 on Kansas City Chiefs at Barstool Sports and bet $100 on Denver Broncos at PointsBet.
In this example we are betting on both outcomes of the NFL game. In total we are betting $200.
However, If Denver Broncos win the game we will receive a $210 payout ($110 winnings + $100 stake)
We paid in a total of $200 and received $210 out. Resulting in a $10 profit.
We won $110 profit from our bet on Denver Broncos and Lost $100 on our bet on Kansas City Chiefs Leaving us with a net profit between both bets of $10.
The same result would occur if Kansas City Chiefs won the game and Denver Broncos Lost.
We would win $110 profit from our bet on Kansas City Chiefs and Lose $100 on our bet on Denver Broncos Leaving us with a net profit between both bets of $10.
By using the Arbitrage Betting Strategy we profit regardless of the outcome of any sports betting market and guarantee a profit every time.
This is why many people consider Arbitrage Betting to be a zero risk betting strategy.
If you would like to learn more about this method check out this Arbitrage Betting Guide below:
Matched Betting – Zero Risk Betting Strategy
The next zero risk betting strategy we are going to look at is called matched betting. It’s often referred to as no risk matched betting as often you can profit regardless of the outcomes of your bets.
Rather than targeting discrepancies in sportsbook odds to make a profit like in Arbitrage Betting.
Matched Betting leverages sportsbook special offers and promotions to guarantee a profit.
Let’s imagine BetMGM sportsbook is offering a promotion, bet $100 on a NHL hockey game and get $100 free bet to use on another hockey game.
We could place the $100 bet and just hope it wins. However, we may lose the $100 and go onto lose the $100 free bet.
We want to try and remove all the risk from betting and win every time.
This is where matched betting comes in! We will strategically place bets on the opposing outcome of the games to ‘hedge our bets’ and remove the risk.
First, we need to find a hockey game to place the $100 bet on at BetMGM to qualify for the $100 free bet.
Find a low hold bet match:
We want to find a match with low hold odds. This essentially means a market where the odds are equal and opposite. I.e. if one team has odds of +130 we want to find odds for the other team at or close to -130 with another sportsbook.
You can try to do this manually or you can use our low hold bet finder tool to speed up find the best match.
We find a hockey game Seattle Kraken vs. Colorado Avalanche. BetMGM are offering odds of +100 on Seattle Kraken to win the game and PointsBet are offering +100 on Colorado Avalanche to win the game.
Calculate and Place Our Bets
We can place a $100 bet on both teams. $100 on Seattle Kraken at BetMGM and $100 on Colorado Avalanche at PointsBet. You can work out how much you need to bet on each team using a matched betting calculator.
By doing this one bet will always win and cover the loss made from the other bet. We have ‘matched’ our bets to ensure we can’t win or lose money.
This is called a qualifier bet as the sole intention of placing this bet is to ‘qualify’ for the free bet without risking our money.
This is displayed in the infographic below.
Once the Seattle kraken vs. Colorado Avalanche game has finished and our bets have been settled by both sportsbooks. We will be credited with a $100 free bet from BetMGM.
Unfortunately, we cannot just with draw the $100 as soon as we get credited with it. We must first use it on a sports bet. Just like before there is no guarantee that our bet would win.
However, We can use the matched betting method again to make a guaranteed profit from this $100 free bet.
We can place our $100 free bet on a hockey game with Bet MGM and place a bet on the other team to win at another sportsbook so in the case that our free bet loses we will make a profit from our bet on the other team.
Calculate and Place our Free Bet.
We can again use a low hold bet finder tool to find a suitable match and then use the matched betting calculator to calculate how much we need to bet.
We find a hockey game between Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers. BetMGM have Boston Bruins at +100 and Bet Rivers are offering odds of +100 on Edmonton Oilers.
Using the matched betting calculator we can place $50 on Edmonton Oilers at BetRivers to ensure we make a $50 profit regardless of the outcome of the game.
Matched Betting is in my opinion one of the best zero risk betting strategies for for both new and experienced sports bettors.
If you would like to learn more about how you can start profiting from this technique head on over to my Matched Betting USA hub. There I have put together all the required information to get started matched betting in your state!
Middle Betting – Zero Risk Betting Strategy
Middle betting is another zero risk betting strategy that we can be used to profit from the sportsbooks.
The strategy centers around placing bets on total goals, total points or team points markets along with spread and handicap markets.
Similar to matched betting and arbitrage betting we will be placing two bets which will cover all potential outcomes.
However, with the middle betting strategy we will be placing bets in different markets we won’t be placing our bet’s on the exact opposite outcome.
For example, with the matched betting an arbitrage strategy if we placed a bet on Under 15.5 Points we would place a bet on the opposite outcome.
In this case Over 15.5 Points.
However, for the middle betting strategy we will look for an over total points market which is below 15.5 Points. i.e. Bet on Over 14.5 Points.
As a result this creates a gap in the middle of these two bets at 15 Points. In which we win both the Over 14.5 Points bet and the Under 15.5 Points bet.
This is the crux of the strategy. At the right odds any final score with points over 15 or under 15 will result in one bet winning and one bet losing so we can ensure we are unable to lose.
I have given a visual example of this zero risk betting strategy above for anyone who is more of a visual learner.
Middles can be tricky to understand at first. If you need additional examples or want to check this strategy in more detail check out my middle betting strategy guide.
Trap Pricing – Zero Risk Betting Strategy
This next zero risk betting strategy can only be used with a betting exchange such as Sporttrade or Prophet Exchange.
A betting exchange is a peer to peer betting market. Unlike a sportsbook where you are betting against the house. At a betting exchange you are betting against other sports bettors.
Fortunately for us this means that betting exchanges allow players to consistently win without any stake restrictions.
Another feature of a betting exchange is the ability to offer a bet into a market for other sports bettor to take.
For example, at a sportsbook we only have the option to take the odds offered by the sportsbook. If Fanduel offer Minnesota Vikings to win at +100 we can only take those odds or leave them and not bet.
However, at a betting exchange we can become to sportsbook and offer our own bet into the market. We could offer +120 for Minnesota Vikings to win. If another sports bettor decided to take the other side our bet then our bet is confirmed.
Placing our Trap Bet In-play
In this zero-risk betting strategy, we will capitalize on the opportunity to actively place bets in the market.
During in-play sports matches, we will offer bets into the exchange betting market at favorable odds far above the current market odds.
Under normal circumstance our bet will never get matched as the odds are bad for other bettors. However, in certain situations we can trick other users into taking these odds.
One of these situations occur during in-play sports games, we will need to wait for the market to clear out all odds. This typically happen following what’s called a material event, like a shot on goal in soccer or hockey, or a touchdown in football.
Upon this happening, all bets offered in the market will be voided, resulting in an empty market.
If we’re quick we can place the first bet into the betting market as soon as it reopens.
For example, if a team are currently at odds of -150 to win. Once the market clears we could quickly slip in a bet at +150
Often other bettors are furiously clicking the cash out button during game altering situations so even if the odds we’re offering into the market are far from the expected odds, they will usually get matched if we are the first bet in the market.
Once the betting market has settled back down to the normal odds range we can cash out our ‘Trap Bet’ out for a profit.
This is just one of many betting exchange betting strategies that you can use to profit day in day out.
No Deposit Casino Bonuses
Although we have been looking at sports betting strategies for the majority of this article. I think it’s worth covering some no-risk betting strategies for online casinos.
Casinos are highly profitable for gambling companies and often they will try to push sports bettors over to their fixed margin casino games or tables games.
It’s very hard to profit from casinos without taking advantage of promotions and bonuses. There are some ways to extract your profit from table games such as blackjack with card counting. However, the card counting gambling system doesn’t have zero risks.
Fortunately, for us as the profit margins from casino games are so high. Casino’s can often offer bonuses and free spins without even needing to deposit or gamble with any of our own money.
These promotions will either give us bonus credit or free spins when we register an account. The bonus credit usually have high wagering requirements which can take a significant amount of time to wager through. In addition these offers can have maximum payout restrictions meaning if you hit a big jackpot payout the winnings may get significanly capped.
However, although mathematically there are zero risks. Casino gaming can be highly addictive and the thrill of betting can be a risk in itself.
Can a Zero Risk Betting Strategy Ever Have Zero Risks?
As I have mentioned at the start of this article describing any bet strategy as a zero risk betting system is simply too simplistic.
Although mathematically these betting systems outsmart the bookmakers and cover all potential outcomes for a profitable return on investment.
There are a number of other risks to consider:
- Human Error (i.e. typo’s in the bet slip/calculator)
- Hardware Error (Sportsbook website crashes, card deposit declines)
- Problem Gambling Risk
- Extenuating Circumstances at Event
- Palpable Error by the bookmaker (i.e. sportsbook claims odds were made in error)
A few examples to consider were the infamous Sunderland vs. Liverpool beachball goal in soccer betting. Where a soccer ball deflected off a beachball to score against Liverpool. Some sportsbook voided the markets other let it stand. Another example from horse racing was when the wrong horse was entered into a race and won under a mistaken identity. Some sportsbooks honored the horses win other sportsbook voided the whole market. Others marked the second place horse as the true winner.
All potential risks for any arbitrage bettors.
Betting Systems to Avoid!
Martingale System
The martingale system is a gambling system that involves adjusting our betting stakes using a simple staking plan.
The staking plan for the martingale system is this, everytime we lose we double the size of our next bet. You keep doubling your bet size until you win. Our adjusted bet size should mean when we do win, we will recover all of our losses go back to breakeven.
Once you win a bet and you reduce your bet size back down to the original stake.
However, the martingale system lessens the risk of losing, when you do lose you lose big!
Sports Betting Tips and Tipsters
There are many people who claim their risky betting tips can provide guaranteed profits and are usually just trying to sell you their subscription service. Although there are some genuine tipsters who can beat the markets in most cases the potential losses
To learn more zero-risk betting strategies sign up to our free betting strategy newsletter:
Leave a Reply